Thursday, February 9, 2012

WTI / Brent Update

The nearby WTI/ Brent spread has retraced to the 50% point targeted in the last post from Jan 9, WTI/ Brent.

From Bloomberg;

 click to enlarge
From the previous post;
"There is support around the -12 area, so getting through that will strongly suggest further downside work. Additionally, the 2 wave back CAN be and usually is, on the deep side .
A 50% retrace is around - 18
.62 retrace  -20 ,
.76 = - 23"

So far there is a potential abc down and it has reached the initial minimum target......BUT
as stated above, 2 waves can be deep, and there is, as always , the chance of the corrective structure becoming more complex. 

However given the target achievement, and the likelihood that  an abc of lesser degree back up can show up,
even if there is more downside work to go, cannot maintain a negative outlook for this spread.
It is important to note that the next leg up will be either a 3 wave or C wave and the last leg up, the 1 or A, was good for 20. 
And whether labeled C or 3, equal legs targets + 2 (roughly).

Good Luck.....now back to the house reno lol.