Thursday, December 8, 2011

SP Update

Naturally it's a big moment coming up Friday and no doubt the market is going to be disappointed with the réalité.
Time to examine the SP chart. 
Daily
click to enlarge
I've labeled the first move down from the spring highs 1, but it can more easily be counted as abc's.
In the long term this will matter, in the next year or so, not at all.
Of more immediate concern is the top today and if it is the completion of c and the correction up as labeled, or if it is merely an "a of c "
Hourly
click to enlarge
Note the repeated negative divergence on the RSI.
Additionally there is a classic false break up over the resist line, followed by a reversal that overlaps the beginning of the last leg up.

So in the short term, even if the move down is some sort of b wave that gets followed by another move up, it likely will be deep, say, to the .618 retrace.
However it's important to look at the volume and "look" of the move down; is it choppy on lower volume with lots of reversals? Or is it impulsing w volume?
If it has the latter characteristics than it is much more likely that the top of the move up is in and the next move down will be either a 3 or C;
seat belts everyone.

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