Showing posts from December, 2011

Euro Takes Out Fibonacci .618 Retrace

The previous Euro post from Nov 23, Euro Breaks Down  says it all, so it is republished in it's entirety, followed by an update. " From last Fri Nov 18 post The Trillion Dollar Question ..Eur/USD "It needs to accelerate one way or the other.     Breaking out of the range will signal the tell; 138 and 134. Again right in the middle of it. Common sense would suggest that with all the turmoil in Europe the euro is doomed, but here it is at an unlikely 1.35.   The highs put in last April/May in almost all assets were significant, and lend weight to the interpretation as depicted in the labeling above, implying another series of ABC's down.  ABC structures frequently have equal (or nearly) legs; that would target 108." It broke down this morning to new lows under 134. That's the tell mentioned above. Additionally, the Euro has broken below the .78 retrace of the lesser x wave. Just. Daily click to enlarge Next milestone on the downside is, of course,

SP Update

Naturally it's a big moment coming up Friday and no doubt the market is going to be disappointed with the réalité. Time to examine the SP chart.  Daily click to enlarge I've labeled the first move down from the spring highs 1, but it can more easily be counted as abc's. In the long term this will matter, in the next year or so, not at all. Of more immediate concern is the top today and if it is the completion of c and the correction up as labeled, or if it is merely an "a of c " Hourly click to enlarge Note the repeated negative divergence on the RSI. Additionally there is a classic false break up over the resist line, followed by a reversal that overlaps the beginning of the last leg up. So in the short term, even if the move down is some sort of b wave that gets followed by another move up, it likely will be deep, say, to the .618 retrace. However it's important to look at the volume and "look" of the move down; is it choppy on lower volume wi

Natural Gas Update

Just a quick look at the pullback and potential Fibonacci support. Hourly click to enlarge The 3.50 is double Fib. support, and then the .618 retrace level of the 1 up is right around the c=a and gap close point at 3.45.