Monday, November 14, 2011

WTI / Brent Update

Please see the preceding  2 posts on this topic, Brent vs WTI, and WTI / Brent, from Sept. 6 and Nov4 respectively.
In those posts I was looking for the spread to narrow from -26.50 at the time of the Sept. 6 writing to a more historically normalized relationship.
In the Nov 4 post I noted the potential for a widening of the premium to the resistance, at around -20 , from -16.50 at the time of writing. It did.
It was also noted that ,

"Longer term plenty of room to come in....-10/-11 looks like resistance, also roughly a 50% retrace."

After hitting -19.67 , the Brent premium to WTI has hit fresh lows.
from Bloomberg;
1st Mo. WTI - Brent

  click to enlarge
If this current move up is equal to the first leg up off the lows it would target -7.50 (roughly).

5 Year

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