Friday, November 18, 2011

The Trillion Dollar Question ..Eur/USD

Where is the Euro going?
The long term and intermediate term  direction for Euro is anything but clear from an Elliott Wave perspective. It is basically structured in abc's and it has had a significant ABC down at the 1.18 low.

Active Mo. Weekly
click to enlarge

The structure up labeled X is obviously an abc, otherwise it would be simple...a 5 wave impulse wave would justify a very bullish interpretation. Instead it's a corrective structure, so X it is. However the move down has yet to assume a 5 wave structure either...so the question of exactly how this resolves is very much still open.
 Euro is nearly in the middle of this giant trading range. 
Daily
click to enlarge
The daily chart is of little help in clarifying the long term direction, except to note the very choppy nature of the last leg down with overlaps rife. It needs to accelerate one way or the other.
 Hourly

Breaking out of the above range will signal the tell; 138 and 134. Again right in the middle of it.

Common sense would suggest that with all the turmoil in Europe the euro is doomed, but here it is at an unlikely 1.35.  
The highs put in last April/May in almost all assets were significant, and lend weight to the interpretation as depicted in the labeling above, implying another series of ABC's down.
 ABC structures frequently have equal (or nearly) legs; that would target 108.

On the other hand if the Euro breaks up, holders of dollars are going to rush to get long hard assets.



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