Monday, November 28, 2011

Natural Gas Makes a Comeback

Natural Gas makes a comeback after months of  boredom with a technically significant pivot. Additionally there was the usual giant spec short position in last weeks COT report.

 Active Mo. Weekly
click to enlarge
Two items of particular note; the low last week at 3.285, was just above the c= .618 of a, and was also at the .76 retrace of  a. 
Additionally there was previous horizontal support at 3.29

If we care to look at the Jan 11 contract over the last few years it looks quite different but holds it's own pivot potential.
Jan Weekly
click to enlarge
In the above the last leg ; 5 = .618 of 3 at the lows last week.


 Active Mo. Weekly
 click to enlarge

On the above chart are some longer term Fibonacci retracements of the entire ABC move down from 15.78 to 2.40, and some Fib extensions of the -A- as targets for -C-.

Shorter term;
Hourly
click to enlarge
Easy to see a probable 5 waves up accompanied by negative divergence on the RSI; a pullback would be  normal here.
Holding the gap and .382 retrace would be very constructive.



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