Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Crude Oil Update

From the last crude oil post Oct. 4
Crude Oil Targets
"Note the repeated positive divergence on the RSI.
It is easy to count the structure down as 2 equal series of abc's.
AND
the 50% retrace of the 32.40 to 114.70 move up is at 73.55, on the active mo. chart it comes in at 74.36.
So short term could well see a significant bounce , as an X wave, if this alternate count becomes good."

Definetly got the bounce. Is the C wave down going to be structured in abc's ? That interpretation is gaining traction.
Lately,  abc structures tend to mimic 5 waves as a series of 3 abc's, ( see the entire B wave up as an example), so for now lets use the (still ) prevailing primary count....

Active Mo. Daily
click to enlarge
 Note the cluster of resistance at the highs yesterday; the 50% retrace of the 3 wave, and the 4th wave of lesser degree previous high at 90.60 So here it might be "a of 4" with b down and c  up still come.

Alt count:
Active mo. Daily
 Again a cluster of resistance just overhead; the .382 retrace of both abc structures and the .618 of the last one, at 90.80.

Again from
Crude Oil Targets "this move down could potentially become the "b of B",  this is a  result of the spot month overlaps and frequent choppy corrections back up..However even in that scenario, there is no reason why a double bottom cannot be made at 32.40, a "flat" correction."

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