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Showing posts from October, 2011

Crude Oil Rip

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The Crude's big rip, as per the prior two crude posts,  Crude Oil Update and Crude Oil Targets , supports the alternate count; an abc structuring of the longer term move down, and this rip up is likely an X wave, that has reached significant resistance.  Active Mo. Daily  click to enlarge The 50% retrace of the entire move down, at the morning highs, if proven as a pivot,  supports the interpretation of the move up as an X wave and the move down as an abc structure, as labeled,  rather than 5 wave. That interpretation implies another series of abc's down, most likely two more, at least. Hourly  click to enlarge Note the RSI negative divergence, and extended overbought run. The bulls want a 5 wave count up, and therefore do NOT want to see more than a .618 retrace of the above 5 structure, or 89.79. Unfortunately for the bears, the down move, whether C wave, or b of B, ain't gonna be easy, as we've seen. Could the move down over the summer have been it for a corre

Crude Oil Update

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From the last crude oil post Oct. 4 Crude Oil Targets "Note the repeated positive divergence on the RSI. It is easy to count the structure down as 2 equal series of abc's. AND the 50% retrace of the 32.40 to 114.70 move up is at 73.55, on the active mo. chart it comes in at 74.36. So short term could well see a significant bounce , as an X wave, if this alternate count becomes good." Definetly got the bounce . Is the C wave down going to be structured in abc's ? That interpretation is gaining traction. Lately,  abc structures tend to mimic 5 waves as a series of 3 abc's, ( see the entire B wave up as an example), so for now lets use the (still ) prevailing primary count.... Active Mo. Daily click to enlarge  Note the cluster of resistance at the highs yesterday; the 50% retrace of the 3 wave, and the 4th wave of lesser degree previous high at 90.60 So here it might be "a of 4" with b down and c  up still come. Alt count: Active mo. Daily  A

And the Good News Is...

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You got the bounce you'd been waiting for. A review of the Big Picture on Equities might be timely. But first; SP Active Mo. Hourly u click to enlarge Note the very minor negative divergence on the RSI. The Hourly displays a series of 3 abc structures mimicking a 5 count with the last series = .618 of the preceding 2. Risk is clearly to the downside. Current Count on the SP; Daily click to enlarge Please note the down and under "b" waves in both the -2- and the (2) waves. In the first it is 1.18 of the "a" and in the second it is 1.38 of the "a". Looking for a (3) of -3- of 5 down. And so far this count down has yet to extend in any of the subwaves.  The 3= 2.23 of the 1.  Will the 5= .618 of the 1 thru 3 at 1048 for barely a new low? Or does it extend and  5 = 1.618 of 3, for instance, for a target around 800 ? Downside Targets from Aug. 8 post SP 500  "So hows about some downside targets;  The A wave low of 666 was a .61 retrace of the

Crude Oil Targets

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The following was first posted on May 8 , after the first sharp move down from 114.71 to 94.60 and the subsequent bounce to 102. From Crude Oil Targets "Longer Term targets for the C wave; The A wave is a 5 count down and the B wave is noticeably below the high and was a complex series of abc structures. So as unlikely as it may seem,  the most common outcome is that the C wave is  going to consist of 5 waves, and carry below the termination of A at 32.40, for a simple zig zag structure.  The A = 114.60, so C will equal A at  23 cents. Now that seems a little unlikely ( the symmetry there is interesting though).   The A wave came off 78% from the highs, so in percent terms C= A at 25.26 The C wave =  .78 of the A  at 25.41 The C = .76 of the A at  27.70 The C= .618 of A at 43.98. The above 43.98 = a 76% retrace of the 10 to 147 final move up in the previous structure as well. Doing some scouting around I was unable to find ANYBODY going public with very low targets l

Investment Bank Carnage and Crude Oil

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Ugly. Bank of America down almost 10% at 5.53, Citi down  9. 78%, Morgan Stanley down nearly 8%, JPMorgan almost 5% ! GS was only down 4.5%. Volume punched up as they closed on the lows. Some of this was being anticipated in the CDS market last week, as noted in various places like Zero Hedge. Speculation was that exposure to a China hard landing weighed heavily on MS , see Hang Seng and Shanghai overnight, or was it the exposure to French Banks? I'm losing track. You can't turn around without bumping into a fresh or recently revived threat to TBTF banks and their guarantors (us). But the point of all this, aside from the imminent destruction of civilization as we know it (more on that later), is the huge % of Crude Oil and Products Open Interest carried by the Investment Banking sector. The combined Nymex and OTC notional Open Interest (not net) in Crude and Products held by Investment Banks was 54% in July 2008, pls see Sept. 16 post, In Case You Were Wondering . Mo