Friday, September 2, 2011

Crude Oil Elliott Wave Update

No real big surprises. Hurricanes, earthquakes, Fed notes, Wyoming dreaming...
The wave count adjusts to reflect the real ebb and flow of market sentiment, in this case the sub wave (4) of minor degree, had another series of abc's to complete itself since the last post of Aug. 22. The rest of the count is unchanged; that implies a series of at least 3 lower lows of increasing degree, to complete a 5 count down.
Active Mo. Daily
click to enlarge
The (4) has retraced .618 of the (3).
The second series of abc's within the (4)  = .78 of the first series.
The high of (4) barely overlapped the -1-...this confirms the lesser degree of (4) count at that point rather than -4-...(would not be allowed ) and the nice fit of .618 retrace also lends weight to that count.

Shorter term;
Hourly
click to enlarge
RSI oversold but no positive divergence yet.
Overlapping 82.94 would look pretty ugly. So far there has been a minor penetration of the .618 retrace to that point. 
On balance, plenty of room on the downside. In fact, it is very likely that at least one of the "5" s of greater degree extends, since we have not seen that yet, and it is common with crude.

On the upside, above 89 would signify another wrinkle in the  sub waves of
minor degree.







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