Monday, September 19, 2011

Crude Oil Big Picture

Since May 3rd post  Crude Trend Line 
Crudewire has seen the likely price direction of WTI as moving significantly lower in an Elliott  C wave of at least Super Cycle degree. 
Active Mo. Weekly

click to enlarge
 The evidence so far bears that out .
 The move up off 32.40 to 114.87, has a distinct abc corrective look, and the labeling and Fibonacci relationships can be found at WTI Update from May 4.
The move down from 114.87 has, at it's lows of 75.71, retraced 89% of the last "c" wave of B. That is too deep a retrace not to confirm that THAT structure is complete and there is an extreme likely hood of 70.76 eventually being overlapped as the C wave down continues.

Note that there is a cluster of support around that 70.76 area: the C= .382 of A @ 70.88 ...

A "C" wave that is .382 of the A wave would be very truncated and frankly unlikely.

So it is likely that the support in the 7077 area will be taken out.
As new lows are made under 70.76 attention will turn to the next levels of support/ previous lows..ie 67.15 low from May 24 2010, and the .618 retrace of the B wave at 64.46... the mid 60's area.
However, in my view, a C wave of this degree will MOST LIKELY be at least .618 of the A for a minimum target of 44.

Bounces should be taken advantage of...
And we just had a big one....

Active Mo. Daily
click to enlarge
Note that at the recent 90.60 high there was slight negative divergence on the 14 RSI (not shown).
The rising support trendline was penetrated today.
The 50% retrace of the choppy corrective structure at 83.15 is also horizontal support. 
Taking the 81.41 .618 retrace level out ought to mark an acceleration down that will also take out the 75.71 low.

Labeling  to follow...












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