Thursday, August 11, 2011

WTI Rips

WTI is making classic lower lows followed by corrective retracements, followed by lower lows.
From the Aug. 8 Crude Oil Elliott Wave Count
"The 3 wave can evolve and the labeling on the sub waves change rather easily. However, the most likely scenario, given the repeated series of 1,2's of lesser degree, will be for a repeated series of 4,5's of greater degree to complete a C wave down."
Active Mo. Hourly
click to enlarge
Note the RSI extreme at the -iii- of iii of (3), and the positive divergence at the low - textbook.
And so far this (4) has retraced .382 of the (3) . The iv had retraced 50% at it's highs.
We should still have the (5), -4-, -5-, 4 and finally the 5, ahead of us, for a series of 3 lower lows.
One method for targeting 5th waves is using .618 of the 1 thru 3.
If the (4 ) is complete at  84.45, then
(5) = .618 of (1) - (3) at 69.06.

Active Mo. Daily
click to enlarge
There was some minor positive RSI divergence at the lows. 
Note the 50 day/ 200 day sma crossover to the downside . The last occurred back in October, preceding a 6 month trend.
 Suffice it to say there is still a long way to go. The minimum target for the C wave is at 43.98, and it could turn out that this 5 structure is merely a subwave of the C down.  








 

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