Friday, August 19, 2011

SP Resumes Move Down

I was scouting around the last day or two's headlines to come up with a catchy title that explained the cause of the collapse today, something along the lines of "Big Doins in Euroland and the SP", but really, it's everything isn't it?  The Philly Fed, employment, housing, deficits, PPI, consumer sentiment other words it's a 3 of C.
From the Aug 8 post SP 500

"Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond."

 Active Mo. Daily
click to enlarge

Note the -4- does not exceed the 50% retrace point of the -3-. 
The SP has likely completed the corrective -4- wave, and is resuming it's downtrend, beginning the -5- of 3 of C.  The move today has been accompanied by big down volume (78%) and breadth (89% declining), tending to confirm the wave count, and the likelihood of  lower lows.
 The -5- of 3 will = .618 of -1- thru -3- @ 1035.
Keeping a close eye on the development of the -5- as it makes new lows, will be important in anticipating the 4 bounce.
Active Mo. Hourly
click to enlarge
 There is as yet no positive divergence on the hourly RSI.
The -4- wave is choppy and structured in a series of abc's. The (1) of -5- down is a very typical impulse wave.
The coming (2) wave can of course be a deep retrace back up.  This market has a nasty habit of deep 2 wave retracements, and for a discussion of that pls see the June 3 post,
SP 500 - Whats going on?
BTW you may note the consistency and accuracy of the wave count there, and the early warning of the sell off to come, in the May 3 post ; 
SP 500- Are we there yet?

Thus far no extension in any of the legs, so looking for it in the 5 wave position, which is common.
From Aug 8  SP 500
" The A wave low of 666 was a Fibonacci .61 retrace of the 1530 point move up. The C wave will have some sort of Fibonacci relationship to the A wave.
C=A @ 452.50
Also the next lower Fibonacci retrace of the 1530 point move up comes in about there;
.76 = 425
(There is also some support at 450 in the form of a 4th of much lesser degree there in 1994.)
 C=A in % terms, ie a 58% pullback, @ 590
C=.618 of A @ 804

Classically a C of Grand Super Cycle Degree, in the final 5th wave, would be expected to be accompanied by a great deal of social unrest, some of which we have just started to see.
Block Party anyone?

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