Friday, August 5, 2011

Elliott 3rd Waves and Crude Oil

Smells like looks like walks like...it is a 3rd wave of the C down.
"Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond."

I will update the count on the charts later.

Be sure to see post from June 16  Long Term Crude Oil Targets
Worth reading in it's entirety but the short version is
"The A = 114.60, so C will equal A at  23 cents. Now that seems a little unlikely ( the symmetry there is interesting though).
The A wave came off 78% from the highs, so in percent terms C= A at 25.26

The C wave =  .78 of the A  at 25.41
The C = .76 of the A at  27.70
The C= .618 of A at 43.98.
The above 43.98 = a 76% retrace of the 10 to 147 final move up in the previous structure as well. "
Personally I like splitting the the difference between 25.26 and 27.70 for 26.48.
If the C down last as long as the A wave (5.5 mo.s ) it should bottom around mid Oct."
Caution; any corrective bounce even a modest one of .382 will be very painful given the extent of the move. And it is a Fri. in August.

No comments:

Post a Comment