Monday, August 8, 2011

Crude Oil Elliott Wave Count

The current Elliott Wave count on WTI;
Active Mo. Weekly
click to enlarge
I have simplified the labeling on the B wave obviously. Of particular note was the complex structure and the extended length of time it ran, lending support to the B wave labeling rather than a 2 wave labeling. The current move down is the beginning of C.

 Active Mo. Daily
 click to enlarge
Note there is as yet no positive divergence on the RSI (though it is oversold). 
There has been an overlap of the beginning point of the last leg up; the c of -C- of B.
The move down has exceeded the .618 retrace of the -C- of B. There has been increasing volume.
It is likely that WTI is in a -3- of 3 of C. 

 Active Mo. Hourly
 click to enlarge

 WTI did get the corrective bounce Friday cautioned about in that mornings 6:20 am post, 
Elliott 3rd Waves and Crude Oil 
"Caution; any corrective bounce even a modest one of .382 will be very painful given the extent of the move. And it is a Fri. in August."

The 3 wave can evolve and the labeling on the subwaves change rather easily. However, the most likely scenario, given the repeated series of 1,2's of lesser degree, will be for a repeated series of 4,5's of greater degree to complete a C wave down.

There has been a lot of  "adjusting of expectations" by brokers, analysts etc. My analysis has consistently reflected the above Elliott Wave Count ( the rally as a corrective wave) and the expectation of major C wave down.

May 3 2010
Crude Trend Line

May 4 2010
WTI Update

May 6 2010
WTI WOW

May 8 2010
Crude Oil Targets

May 12 2010
Crude Oil Update

May 18 2010

Crude Oil Correction

May 25 2010
Crude Oil Correction Redux

June 2 2010
Crude Oil Update

June 3 2010
Crude Alert

June 8 2010
WTI Wave Count
  Crude Count Update

June 13 2010
Crude Oil

June 15 2010
Crude Oil retraced .618

June 16 2010
Long Term Crude Oil Targets

June 17 2010
For the Bulls

June 21 2010
For the Bears

June 22 2010
Crude Oil Update

June 28 2010
Neckline Backtest

July 8 2010
Crude Oil Update

July 29 2010
WTI

August 3 2010
WTI Trendline Takedown

August 5 2010
Elliott 3rd Waves and Crude Oil

The above list contains all my WTI posts since May 3rd. Have a read and have fun.
BTW "Long Term Crude Oil Targets" is still current and unadjusted.
















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