Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Back Up

Back Up; the power that is, after Ilene. Unfortunately the move up over the last week is merely another series of corrective abc's; the storm global markets are experiencing is not even close to over.

 SP Active Mo. Daily
click to enlarge
Note RSI is no longer oversold. 
The -4- has retraced 50% of the -3- wave.

 SP Hourly
 click to enlarge
Minor negative divergence on the hourly RSI.
Perfect c=a on the last structure up, call it "y of -4-", as the second series of abc's. 
The thrust down that so looked like an impulse wave may be an X wave, or possibly an "a" wave an X wave if this is forced up again.
Short term looks like more downside work to do, potentially the -5- of 3 of C the current count.

Longer term this count will likely get moved down a degree, depending on whether there is an extension in the the 5 as previously discussed or not. That means it is going lower, the only question is how fast.
Does it find support above 1000 or rip through? 
Weekly

Guessing 5= .618 of 1-3 just above 1002, so that will be a very interesting point as a cursory glance across the chart will tell you.

Ultimately the C wave will have to be much lower than 1000, more like 450.


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