Friday, July 29, 2011

WTI

It's been a LONG time between WTI posts, since July 8, at which time WTI was trading 96.66.
And it's been an indecisive and dull 3 weeks, with the creeping upside move putting a dent in bearish sentiment, as WTI retraced just over .78 of the previous leg down. The potential for another test of the highs as discussed in the last post, Crude Oil Update, could not be ruled out.
 Active Mo. Daily
 click to enlarge

However, the very choppy action, and abc structuring of that move up,  was not really encouraging.
Additionally, you will note the failure to get back above the 100 dma and the 50/100 cross.
All in all, it leaves the count of 1, 2, -1-, -2-, intact as the most likely Elliott Wave count.
Risk of an accelerating -3- of 3 down remains high.

Looking at the above chart, overlapping the 93.55 low certainly raises the odds of a test of the 89.65 lows. And overlapping 94.69 leaves the 93.55 begging to be tested.


Active Mo. Hourly
click to enlarge
Since the first half of this post the GDP numbers came out. Looks like the (3) of -3- of 3 starting. Volatility about right. So far no posiitive RSI divergence, though it's in oversold territory of course.
Not far away from the 94.69 level.

On the upside, an overlap of the (2) at 98.01, would change the count.


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