Showing posts from July, 2011


It's been a LONG time between WTI posts, since July 8, at which time WTI was trading 96.66. And it's been an indecisive and dull 3 weeks, with the creeping upside move putting a dent in bearish sentiment, as WTI retraced just over .78 of the previous leg down. The potential for another test of the highs as discussed in the last post, Crude Oil Update , could not be ruled out.  Active Mo. Daily  click to enlarge However, the very choppy action, and abc structuring of that move up,  was not really encouraging. Additionally, you will note the failure to get back above the 100 dma and the 50/100 cross. All in all, it leaves the count of 1, 2, -1-, -2-, intact as the most likely Elliott Wave count. Risk of an accelerating -3- of 3 down remains high. Looking at the above chart, overlapping the 93.55 low certainly raises the odds of a test of the 89.65 lows. And overlapping 94.69 leaves the 93.55 begging to be tested. Active Mo. Hourly click to enlarge Since the first half

Natural Gas Elliott Wave Count

The Natural Gas has been going it's own way since Jan of 2010. Divorced from the influence of USD weakness, it has reflected the overall domestic macroeconomics of over capacity with little growth. That may be about to change.  Natty has slowly but consistently been making higher lows and higher highs for the last 9 months and in the process it has taken out  one descending trend line after another. Active Mo. Weekly click to enlarge Meanwhile it has held the ascending trend line and begins an upward sloping channel. Active Mo. Daily  Click to enlarge Note the recent "c = .78 of a"  Fibonacci relationship of the legs at B; likely completing a second series of abc's.  While there could be a third series of abc's, taking natty even deeper into the apex of the triangle, downside opportunity is limited given the current structure and the long term significance of the 2.40 low. Here's the Elliott count.  Active mo. Weekly above   click to enlarge As can be se

Crude Oil Update

Geez, go away for a few days and the place goes crazy. The relentless early July ramp during the holiday period reopens the possibility of alternative counts on the Crude. The move down since May has taken on the look of an abc structure, but that does not  necessarily mean new highs will be put in, even if that is the ultimate count. Additionally there is some evidence of continued 1,2 development. WTI Active Mo. Daily  click to enlarge Of intermediate term importance is the  "c = a " structure of the move up off the 89.61 lows, labeled (2) or x.  That wave also retraces both .382 of the entire move down off the highs of 114.83, and  .78 of the wave labeled (1). If the recent high of 99.42 is a (2) we can expect an acceleration down for new lows, if it is an x wave, it will likely be a choppy abc type structure to new lows. Taking out 93.44 will be an important overlap lending weight to the above counts.  There are 3 basic scenarios from here; the move down is done and C