Wednesday, June 8, 2011

WTI Wave Count

In general the count outlined in previous post , Crude Alert, remains intact.

Big picture:
Active Mo. Daily
click to enlarge
If a 3 of C down is beginning it is likely to be a Fibonacci multiple of the 1.
3= 1@ 83.02
3= 1.618 of 1 @ 70.57
3= 2.618 of 1 @ 50. 27  (niice)

Shorter term the move down from the 2 is also starting a -3- of 3;

 Hourly
 click to enlarge
If we assume that the -3- of 3 down will be a Fibonacci multiple of the -1- ( or 4.95) from 99.79 we get;
-3- = -1- @ 94.84 (must hold for the bulls)
-3- = 1.618 of -1- @ 91.79 
-3- = 2.38 of -1- @ 88.00
-3- = 2.618 of -1- @ 86.84
It is very likely that taking out the lows at 94.63 will kick off some serious liquidation so the 91.79 measured target strikes me as too modest given where Crude will be in the count; 
-3- of 3 of C , so leaning toward the lower targets of 88.00 or 86.84.
It's likely that there will be a relabeling of degree with the -1- at 98.47 becoming (1), if there isn't an expansion in this -3- down.





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