Friday, June 3, 2011

SP 500 - Whats going on?

Haven't tackled this topic since the May 3rd post, SP 500- Are we there yet? 
....turns out we were ( see post for the discussion of the corrective B wave rally up).

The structure down since then has contained some difficult overlaps that often characterize corrective moves, in this case an expanding triangle -2-. This type of triangle has obscured the impulse nature of the move down, but is in fact, characteristic of a weak market that makes lower lows even within the corrective wave. The SP is most likely just beginning the -3- of 1 of C down.

 daily
click to enlarge
The -2- wave structure has  -c- = 1.382 of  -a-, and the sub wave's of -b- are (a) = (c).
The high of -c- of  -2- is a .618 retrace of the move off the highs of 1373 to the low of the expanding triangle at -b-. All these Fibonacci relationships support the view of -2- being an expanding triangle.
Taking out the lower support line and previous low of  1290.25 will mark the " moment of recognition" associated with 3rd waves.

30 min
click to enlarge
If the Elliott Wave count on the above 30 min. chart is correct this is NOT the weekend to close out your shorts.
While the (2) wave may have some further upside work to do it is likely very limited. 
Have a nice weekend.

PS;  it also took out the daily trendline, and settled below it last night.






No comments:

Post a Comment