Thursday, June 9, 2011

Natural Gas Freak Out

Algos gone wild?

From putting everyone to sleep as it moved sideways toward an apex of 4.20 sometime next Nov.. .....
( cue up the tune  Freak Out! here)
Natty overlapped the previous high of the X wave at 4.88 , reversed and dropped 50 cents ( retracing .60 of the preceding 2 week move up) all in less than 5 min.! And then retaking most of that fall in the next 30 min! 
5 min.
click to enlarge

Daily

The upshot of overlapping the wave labeled X, is that it advances the probability of the move up being longer term and carrying above the 2010 high of 6.11 . 
From previous post June 2,
"I believe the low on May 20 of 4.077 was the end of the 18 month choppy, complex B wave down.
The next series of abc's will equal the 1st series up @ 7.80 (roughly).
The 50% retrace of the 13.70 to 2.40 C wave is @ 8.10.
The .382 retrace of 15.78 to 2.40 is @ 7.48"
Active Mo. Weekly
click to enlarge

Very short term NG probably needs to chop around a little before putting in fresh highs over 4.92.
It is possible that this mornings move up is minor b wave with a minor c down still to come. Given the recent range even if truncated c= .382 of the "a" , that could still be a drop to 4.75. It will be interesting to see what it does at 4.82.
 5 min.


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