Friday, June 3, 2011

Crude Alert

The fresh low yesterday at 98.45 went some way toward confirming the count outlined in the previous post, Crude Oil Update
This implies that a -3- of 3 down is imminent , very likely taking out the 94.63 lows of May 6 after completing the current -2- wave we are in.
Hourly
click to enlarge
The -1- down has easily identified 5 waves and the (5) = .618 of (1) thru (3), a common relationship.
 The -a- of  -2- has already retraced 50% of the -1-. In the previous 2 of larger degree we saw the same 50%  retrace, from 94.63 to 104.60 , and that was not exceeded. 

If we assume that the -3- of 3 down will be a Fibonacci multiple of the -1- ( or 4.95) from 100.93 we get;
-3- = -1- @ 95.98 (must hold for the bulls)
-3- = 1.618 of -1- @ 92.93
-3- = 2.38 of -1- @ 89.14 
-3- = 2.618 of -1- @ 87.98
It is very likely that taking out the lows at 94.63 will kick off some serious liquidation so the 92.93 measured target strikes me as too modest given where Crude will be in the count; 
-3- of 3 of C , so leaning toward the lower targets of 89.14 or 87.98.
In fact it's likely that there will be a relabeling of degree with the -1- at 98.47 becoming (1), if there isn't an expansion in this -3- down.

 





 





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