Wednesday, May 4, 2011

WTI Update

Yesterday there was a slight penetration of the ascending wedge trendline, encouraging the bears looking for a B wave top. SeeCrude Trend Line
 Active Mo. Daily
click to enlarge
Note the negative divergence on 14 RSI.
 The above labeling depicts the abc structuring of the move up, typical of corrective moves and B waves. A wedge would be a classic ending pattern.
The "c" is a 100% extension from the "a" high.
Within the "c" wave the z = 50% of the y, and the y = 76% of the w.

Fibonacci relationships on the weekly chart;
 

 While the above does not represent my preferred count, I've often thought that the circled price behavior may well all have been the -B- wave. It sure was confusing enough.
Thought the near -C- = -A- interesting.
Below is the conventional and preferred count .
Weekly
click to enlarge
Negative divergence on the RSI.
The -C- high is a 50% extension from the -A- high. Overall the B wave retraced 72% of the A wave, in itself without Fibonacci significance. Oddly 114.80  is 32.2 under 147.

Shorter term;

15 min.
 click to enlarge
So far no real easy 5 count down. it could use an extension to encourage the bears. Penetrating 109.30, the .618 retrace of the last "z" wave, will raise a red flag for the bulls. Of course overlapping the 105.30  point will confirm it all.









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