Tuesday, May 3, 2011

SP 500- Are we there yet?

Well it hit the Fibonacci .78 retrace in any event.
MAYBE it can get to the .85 retrace but it's looking tired and complacent... the VIX was at it's lowest since 2007  at 14.27 last week.
Additionally, the move up from the 1002 level of last July, looks like a rough 5 wave structure. In actuality it's a series of abc structures that mimic a 5 count.
Active Mo. Weekly
 click to enlarge
Note the negative divergence on the Weekly 14 RSI.

Active Mo.Daily
 click to enlarge
Again negative divergence on 14 Day RSI.
Lets see if this can take out the trendline for starters. The next point of significant encouragement for the bears will be the overlap of the 1290 low.

A little nearer by taking out some previous lows on the hourly chart should shake out some of that complacent length.
Hourly
click to enlarge

 There is a cluster of support around 1340, the .382 retrace on the last structure up, and an area of repeated buying interest.

Just for fun, note the Fibonacci ratio extensions acting as resistance on the way up.

click to enlarge


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