Thursday, May 19, 2011

Rbob Update

The  following count explains the severity of the bounce off the first move down in Elliott terms (it was really a 5th wave failure), and suggests the next new low will likely be in a -3- of 3 formation,  with potential to accelerate.

Active Mo. Daily
click to enlarge
Note that -5- of 3 up is .618 of -1- through -3-, a common relationship for a 5th wave.
This supports the interpretation of that last thrust up. that failed to make a new high, as being the 5 of c of B. Crudewire did pretty much nail the high though in the April 28 post ,
Rbob High
Active Mo. Hourly
click to enlarge
While not illustrated, the -2- has retraced .618 of the -1-, this morning. Expect the -3- down to be just starting (the degree labeling on the way down can be expected to change).
Likely targets for the C wave are below.
Active Mo. Weekly
click to enlarge
Note that the c=a on the B wave.

Though it works well, the above chart uses an active mo. that rolls a little vaguely. Using the actual spot month high and low for the A wave down of 3.6310  and .7850, the C = A @ 57.67 rather than .6612.
Whats 10 cents between friends.


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