Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Natural Gas Update

Finally! In all the excitement over in the USD/ Crude arena I've not posted on NG in over a week.
Please feel free to contact me for the most up to date thinking on the development of the wave count, and short term outlook etc.,  it is just not possible to post in the moment , all the time.

                                              guywbishop........ Yahoo I M
                                              guywbishopOTC... AIM I M
                                             
Last week it has to be said, while I was looking for a minor short term pullback I also thought it would see higher highs;
 "Shorter term there is likely a series of shallow pullbacks followed by slightly higher highs into the 4.80 / 4.88 level.", ( that's from the 4.73 high).
Never happened, the breach turned into a false break out, and Natty continues to crawl into the apex of
the triangle.
Frankly by early Thur. with the penetration below 4.55, and general commodity dump it was no surprise to see it dump 25 cents.

Currently it looks set up for another try at the upside break out. The below count is just about the most bullish interpretation , justified by the Fibonacci relationships between the legs, the lack of lower lows since Oct of 2010 and the long term significance of the 2.40 low. Arguing against a break higher would be that usually a triangle breaks down in this position, and the decrease in short spec Open Interest over the last month
 Daily

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