Monday, May 2, 2011

Natty Again

As discussed in the last post Natural Gas Update 
"If it's a 1,2 then it's going to take out the weekly trend line around 4.64 and overlap the high in the above chart at 4.88. Note the minor penetration of the tightest declining resist line. In this count it probably shouldn't get under the 50% retrace at 4.24 if it's in the early stages of a 3 wave."
 Active Mo. Weekly
 click to enlarge
That trend line has been pretty decisively taken out, and the probability of Natty being in a 3rd wave or C wave with MUCH higher targets is increasing. Note the resist at the previous 6.11 high coincides (roughly) with the Y=.618 of W . After such a lengthy basing period however I lean toward the Y=W structure at 7.45
Shorter term

Note the absence of any negative divergence on the 14 day RSI.
Back testing the break out is normal, even some minor penetration of it is to be expected.

Obviously the next milestone will be the 4.80 resist. cluster. Overlapping 4.88 will be a significant marker for more serious upside risk longer term.
Shorter term there is likely a series of shallow pullbacks followed by slightly higher highs into the 4.80 / 4.88 level.

 Lots of divergence on the Hourly RSI. Holding above the 4.55 level will be very constructive for further upside work.
If this were to accelerate through the 4.88 level in the short term, it would signal a likely -3- of 3 structure and expectations of higher targets; 7.45 +

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