Monday, May 16, 2011

Euro

The Euro has got a lot of eyes on it this morning and with good reason.  Leaving the news and fundamentals aside for the moment, from an Elliott Wave perspective, it is set up to potentially accelerate to the downside.
Daily 
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The 1.3995 / 1.40 area, as the .618 retrace , previous low, and key round number over the years, will no doubt be a magnet with stops just under to be expected. In fact, in light of that, today's low at 1.4038, if overlapped, ought to trigger a wave of selling.

Hourly (from May 12)
 click to enlarge
 This is an older chart from last Thur.s  morning (sorry my usual charting package is down) with the  Elliott count. Awaiting the wave 3 down.
Hourly (current)
click to enlarge

Shorter term the action down from Wed.'s  high of 1.43 can be seen as  a "1, 2, -1-, -2-" set up implying a subsequent 3 rd wave expansion down.  Fridays high cannot be overlapped or its an  irregular 'b" wave down of some sort, delaying the 3 down slightly.

So very short term the 4180/ 1.42 level will interesting to watch as the 50% retrace of Fridays dump and potential -c- = -a- of this mornings bounce off the lows of 1.4038.
Again new lows under 1.4038 will be very negative.

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