Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Crude Oil Correction Redux

The correction is achieving in time, what it cannot in price. The count on the hourly chart is rather involved series of 3 abc's, on the daily chart it's a simple abc with c= .618 of a.
However the correction is counted, it's safe to say that the move up off the lows is NOT an impulse wave.
Please see the May 4 post  WTI Update or the May 12 Crude Oil Update  for the count on the B wave up ending at 114.83
Active Mo. Daily
click to enlarge
Note the RSI is back in neutral territory, and it never did generate a positive divergence at the lows.


The 3 down  can be expected to equal or very  probably exceed the 1 by a Fibonacci multiple; 1.382 or 1.618. If it is equal to the 1 then it puts it around  81 , overlapping the "b" low of Feb.15th.
Naturally any multiple of 1 takes it out, painting a really ugly picture for any bullish holdouts.
Longer term downside risk is about as high as it gets, see Crude Oil Targets

And a quick update on the Rbob count;
 Hourly
click to enlarge
Note the negative divergence on the  14 RSI.
c=a at about the .382 retrace




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