Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Crude Oil

Yesterday the WTI sold off the most since Mar. 15. That may have been short term profit taking by the specs but the Mar.15 move didn't seem to make a big dent in the O.I.

The $5.60 move from the high to last nights 107.87 low will no doubt require some re exploration.



click to enlarge
Note the RSI, the divergence exists on the  hourly chart as well.
It looks like a 1-2-3 down so far. The leading 1 -2  however does not look like a clear impulse structure. It IS a small unit of time, and sometimes an initial reversal starts out with a corrective look. Time will tell on this. The bounce off last nights low DOES have an easy to see 5 wave structure. If this bounce turns out to be a 4th wave correction, and we then get fresh lows, it will go a long way towards signifying at a minimum, a longer term correction down, and perhaps the long awaited C wave.


 Weekly

 So far the B wave has retraced 70% of the A, with little Fibonacci significance. However if the above count on the structure is used, the -C- = .78 of the -A- at the 113.46 high.  Could be done, there's a ton of spec length, and I'm getting tired of looking for the reversal (bear exhaustion?).
Active Mo. Daily
 click to enlarge
The entire "c" wave can easily be seen to be structured in a series of a-b-c 's, characteristic of a corrective B wave.
Ideas to the contrary will be seriously dented by taking out the trend line , not to mention overlapping 102.70






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