Monday, March 7, 2011

WTI Ballistic

Nice close Fri.. Right through the .618 retrace of the entire 08' impulse wave down. Weekly settle too.
It remains a "B" wave retrace of that impulse wave down however.
Active Mo.
click to enlarge
 The next most likely Fibonacci resistance point is the .78 retrace of the A wave @ 121.78
Additionally there is c= a resistance about there as well . This is a very likely reversal point for the B wave up.

Active Mo. Daily
 click to enlarge
Note that the 14 RSI , while in overbought territory for sure, is NOT showing any negative divergence.

The above C wave is comprised of a series of abc's that mimic a 5 count up, labeled w,y,and z.
The "y" is 1.382 of the "w".  The "z" will be 1.618 of the "y" at 119.25.
So serious cluster of resistance at 119/122.

How long can this recent thrust up last? 
Hourly
 The .382 retrace of the last leg up comes in at 104.29 ...traders may get nervous now, with record spec longs.
 At the highs it currently has an equivalent leg up structure. The 14 Hr RSI is showing minor negative divergence.

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