Friday, March 25, 2011

Natural

 NG has run into a little resistance at the .618 retrace point of the last major leg down as well as the 200 dma just above. That would be expected.  The move up does have the look of an impulse wave up, which has not been seen for awhile in the NG.
Active Mo. Daily

click to enlarge
Note there is NO negative RSI divergence. 
The count above implies that a 5th wave will take out the .618 AND 200dma resist.
There is an important declining trend line that cuts in the mid 4.60's. and the .78 retrace of that last leg down is at 4.63, see below.
Of course overlapping the Jan 24 high of 4.88 will get ALL the shorts crazy.
Weekly
  click to enlarge
The above chart is the active month, but I am using the strict spot mo. high and low points to derive the Fibonacci retrace numbers.
On the Fibonacci extension note that the c=.618 of a at 6.04, just under the 6.11 high of 2010.
That 6.04 is probably too shallow for the c and so c=a would be more likely at 7.46. In either case not a ride to be on the wrong side of.
Hourly
 Shorter term, a pullback to the .382 or even 50%  retrace and 4th of lesser degree is likely, prior to testing the above mentioned resist in the 4.63/4.67 area. It's about time NG got exciting.





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