Friday, March 18, 2011

Natty Rebound

In the last post on NG  Wed. Mar. 9 and the Reuters NA Power Forum interview of the same date,  a number of factors were featured that provided support ;  the triangle or pennant trendline, 5 sub-waves down looking complete, and last but not least the very large spec short Open Interest.
"With short O.I. like this any number of events can trigger short covering...weather, cross commodity spread liquidation, margin changes etc." Tonight's O.I. numbers will be of particular interest.
 Daily
click to enlarge
Of note is the bounce to the .382 retrace point of the last leg down ( now appears to be slightly above) and the mov. avg. interplay at about these levels (not a fan of however).  
Hourly
 click to enlarge  
Note the neg divergence on 14 RSI. Very short term pullback likely.
It would be very constructive for NG to hold the 50% retrace and put in new highs, giving a definitive 5 wave structure and crossing over those mov avg's.
Overhead the gap and 50% retrace at 4.31.






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