Thursday, February 24, 2011

More WTI

The Fibonacci .618 retrace of the entire move down has been achieved. That Fib point carries a high probability  for the completion of the B wave up from 32.40
Active Mo.
click to enlarge
The above Fib points are generated using the spot month high and low, rather than what is shown on the active mo. chart.
I have to admit that I am not crazy about that  "spike" high as a completion of the B wave despite the Fib. point there. So far the move down has been ambiguous and not really easy to count an impulse wave YET.
However the blow off overnight counts pretty well as an ending 5th fulfilling the 5=.618 of 1 thru 3 measuring rule. 
AND there are likely very few if any short positions out there.
Hourly
click to enlarge
That 93.55 area looks like an important cluster of support, a 4th of lesser degree and a 50% retrace of the leg.
If it gets down there it'll be interesting to see how the structure looks; choppy with overlaps, or impulsing?
Same thing goes for any attempts to retest 103.41

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

WTI

Whew. Where to start?
 Very short term, April has a gap to fill down at 95.47 from the overnight trading. Pit trading hours, Mar  has not made a new high on the "spot mo." chart vs. 92.84 and the strict spot month chart roll could produce a serious gap. Of course on Globex all hours , everything is in new high territory and through the 50% long term retrace point.  Should prove an interesting expiry.
Active Mo
click to enlarge

Intermediate and long term this move up is a "B" wave retrace of the $114 impulse wave down from 147.
Clearly the next obvious Fibonacci resist and target is the .618 at 103.22 on the spot month chart.
Just over that at 104.34 is the -C- =.618 0f -A- .
Please note on the above active mo. chart the -C- = 50% of the -A- at last nights highs.



Thursday, February 10, 2011

Natural Gas Elliott Update.

Turns out it's an X wave down of larger degree (which we kinda knew). Here's an updated Elliott count.  
Active Mo.
click to enlarge
The three series of abc's are almost all equal so it gets it's own structure label W. That makes this move down  an X wave of greater degree. Within that structure c=a @ 3.86 and the .618 retrace of W kicks in at the 3.90 level, the measured target previously discussed. As usual the reaction to the stats will probably clear things up and provide a little opp.

I do not believe that this choppy move up, beginning last Oct is done yet. It is likely that we get another series of abc's up ( at least) . The simple reason is because there is a clear ABC down from the highs of 2005 lasting 4 years and we have not spent enough time or retraced enough price on the upside since the lows of 2009.



Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Brent

 From an Elliott perspective about as done as it gets.
Active Mo Weekly
click to enlarge
A very interesting repetition of patterns; the "c" and "C" are both .62 of respective "a" and "A" waves.
And using the spot month high of 147 and a 33.50 low; the whole structure up has retraced .618 at recent 103.46 highs. 
Targets on the down side for the C wave down of larger degree, from 103.46
C=  .50 of A @ 48.50
C = . 618 of A @ 33.50
C =  .78 of A @ 14.95
In percent terms;
C=.618 of A @  53.80
C= A @ 22.76


Thursday, February 3, 2011

Natty

As alluded to last week the X wave MAY be complete, and we atre seeing a new series of abc's up to make a Z structure. That has been  characteristic of this market since the 3.28 low last Oct.
Unfortunately the choppy nature of abc structures make certainty regarding this very difficult, compounded by the very small size of the moves up since the 4.25 low, and the fact that it seems to be running into trouble right at the very modest .382 retrace of the presumed X wave down from 4.88 to 4.25.
Active Mo.
 click to enlarge
Note the negative divergence on the hourly 14 RSI. 
This contract really needs to hold the 4.35 low and make fresh highs over 4.50.
Alternatively it is very possible that what we are seeing is a B wave correction within the X down and lower lows under 4.25 are coming up. This is discussed in the previous post. If that is the case, another leg of the X down has measured targets of  4.09/4.12, and 3.90.
Expect the storage number and the reaction to it will clarify all this.



Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Long Bond

The 30 Yr has about as ugly a chart pattern as I've seen.
The Head and Shoulders set up is on a diagonal and reminds me of the historic bottom of '82, an inverse diagonal Head and Shoulders.
 Historic
Note the Inverse Head and Shoulders formed by the '80 , '81, and '84 lows.
Active Month 

Weekly

Daily
click to enlarge
Note the 100 day MA crossing under the 200 day.
Hourly
click to enlarge
Just penetrated the support trend line of the 6 week long consolidation. While another retest of the top of the range is possible, failure to exceed a Fib retrace followed by new lows would be extremely negative. 
Using the neckline break measuring rule of a target equal to the distance from the head to the neckline, yields a catastrophic 85.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Rbob

Rbob came up against resistance today noted in the Jan 18 post,  Rbob Retraces .618
 There is  measured -c- =  -a- resistance at 2.53.. And the actual spot month chart  .618 retrace of the entire '08 crash is at 2.543.
So while calling tops in this market hasn't been much fun, here's another spot with  potential for a reversal .
Active Mo. Daily
click to enlarge
  Note the negative divergence on the 14 RSI .

Active Mo. Hourly

Note the minor negative divergence on the 14 RSI. 
So Rbob needs to take out some previous lows for starters, and the 2.41 area certainly needs to hold for there to be any hope on the upside intermediate term.