Thursday, January 13, 2011

WTI - Bubble in the making?

Today there was a brief discussion on Reuters re potential for a "bubble"  forming in Crude ,
"
One of the key indicators of a financial bubble is that price rises (or in the case of a crash/inverse bubble price declines) accelerate towards the peak (trough)......

the question is whether we are seeing the emergence of a bubble in oil"
Accompanying chart ;
Brent
click to enlarge
Looking at the Brent chart, the blow off top of '08 and the wave acceleration from 1999 is a classic.  Here's another chart (WTI) using a slightly different time frame that illustrates a classic retracement rather than a  bubble in the making.








Weekly
click to enlarge
Note the acceleration phase during the -3- of 3 subwave, in Oct of '08.  Also classic. The subsequent rally has all the characteristics of a corrective retrace; one of which is to spend time in the price area that the acceleration occurred in. You might say it's done that;  1.5 years! Please see Crude gains 5% in 2010 ! (Almost) 
It's also interesting to note the levels we are achieving today correspond roughly with the beginning of that wave down in Oct of '08 and have retraced 52% of the move down.
Guess it's all how you look at it.


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