Friday, January 21, 2011

Natural Gas Wave Count

Active Mo. Daily
click to enlarge
Note the repeated negative 14 RSI divergence. 
So far it looks like a double zig zag completed. The second series of abc's, "y",  is equal to .618 of "w".
I am thinking NG ends up with 3 series of abc's for the "z", but not without an intervening "x" down.

Here's the Feb contract;
 click to enlarge
Here the "y" ="w".

Feb. Hourly
click to enlarge 
There is some minor negative divergence on 14 RSI.
Taking out the .618 retrace on this at 4.53 will indicate additional weakness , and the .618 retrace of the "y" structure is at 4.23. The last x wave  shown on the daily active mo. chart retraced 50% of the "w". A similar retrace of the "y" targets 4.35.
Of course this may unfold as merely a double zig zag up, with the next move down an X wave of greater degree allowing anything down to 3.28 really.


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