Thursday, January 20, 2011

Crude Oil Update

First WTI
Active Mo. Hourly
 click to enlarge
Structured in abc's, sure looks like it's complete, with a series of 3 abc's labeled w,y,z.  The spot month  failed to exceed the Jan 5th 92.58. Implications and downside targets are discussed in Crude Oil Outlook, from Jan. 5.
Daily

Right on daily bar support.

Brent
Active Mo. Weekly
click to enlarge
Almost .618 but not quite.  On this chart it's a .606 retrace. Good enough.
Recent talk of a squeeze in the press might be a coincident indicator of it all being done.

Daily
 click to enlarge
 I believe this is all structured in abc's as well, including the "y".

Bottom line here is the long awaited C wave is likely under way. As I update this post at 10:30, the daily support line on the WTI is being taken out. Rbob is well under.
On the downside, it'll probably take out previous lows, ie 88.45 on Mar WTI, and reverse as usual.
Any bounce will likely be contained by the 50% retrace (from wherever)  if we are now, as I believe, in a -3- of 1 down. As it stands that would be 90.33






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