Thursday, December 16, 2010

Uh Oh

Couple of recent headlines...
from Dec 15 Commodity Assets Expand to Record $345 Billion in November, Barclays Says
 and from B of A Fund Managers Survey: a huge surge in energy bulls

 A net 44 percent of the respondents predict the world’s economy to strengthen in 2011, compared to 35 percent a month earlier. A net 51 percent anticipate corporate profits improving next year, up from 36 percent in November. At the same time, more investors believe that inflation is likely to rise with a net 61 percent of the panel forecasting higher core inflation in 2011.
Energy has dislodged Technology from its pedestal as the world’s favorite stock sector for the first time in a year. Technology had been the top pick for 11 consecutive months since January. A net 38 percent of asset allocators are overweight Energy, up sharply from a net 24 percent in November. A net 34 percent of the panel is overweight Technology, a monthly fall of one percentage point. A second large gainer was Materials, with an extra 8 percent of respondents moving to overweight positions. Both Energy and Materials are sectors that traditionally benefit from rising inflation.

And as most are aware the CFTC Commitment of Traders reports that non commercial O.I. for the Crude Rbob and HO reflecting the above sentiments and show long O.I. at highs for the second half.






 

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