Happy New Year!
There is a pretty good argument that we have the completion of the move up that has taken place over the last 6 mo.s. Active contract Daily click to enlarge Note the 14 Day RSI is exhibiting negative divergence, and the MACD rolling/crossing down. The structure up can be counted as 5 waves. The "e" = .46 of the "c", the "c" = 1.5 of the "a", and the "e" = .39 of "a" thru "c". Even if you are viewing the last 6 mo.s up as the beginning of a longer term upward structure that makes significant new highs, this is looking like a place to take profits with serious risk of a major pullback, ie a 50% retrace of the last six mo.s, or 125 points. There is a tremendous amount of complacency out there..note the VIX click to enlarge Readings below 17 mark the beginning of major moves down , and there is a very high risk of that being true again. No matter what the Fed does. This argues for more than merely a correctiv