Friday, November 12, 2010

WTI

The pre-open high yesterday of 88.61was a 49% retrace of the 147 to 32.40 collapse. That collapse was a clear 5 waves down from an all time high.  The leg up from the lows has been anything but a clear 5 waves up. It is a very difficult structure to count, with many possible alternative interpretations; typical B wave.
There will be another major leg down ( at least) of either 5 or 3 sub waves. If that major leg down were to equal the 1st leg in percent terms from 88.61 , then 19.50 becomes the target. If it were to be equal to .618 of the 1st leg in nominal terms then 17.92 becomes the target. So the long term downside risk from wherever the B wave terminates is obviously huge.
Shorter term the technical damage done last night signals the completion of the move up that began in late August.



As seen above the move down off the current highs has found short term support at the .382 retrace and 4th of lesser degree, on the subwave -5- of the last leg up.
But the hourly bar chart reveals a 5 down off the highs...so more to come ...
Look to the 4th wave on the daily chart and 50% pullback of the 71 to 88.61 move around 79.75 for nearby support...still a long way off.
I think if it were to take out the .618 retrace of that leg at 77.60 it would confirm the top was in.

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