Wednesday, November 3, 2010

WTI Tops


click to enlarge
This chart  action can only be described as a series of abc's with repeated overlaps of previous highs and lows.This is NOT characteristic of an impulse wave and thus is by definition corrective.
The amount of time spent chopping up from the May lows and the extent of the retrace, 89%,  probably argues for the move up to be labeled a "B" wave.
Still, a "C" wave can easily carry to 1.62x the "A", putting the WTI down at 53 from todays highs.
Is this choppy move up done?
Most of the dynamic driving the rally's has been of course the USD, NOT demand as evidenced by the inventories and refinery activity. And the USD is primarily a function of the Euro/USD. With the PIIGS credit spreads blowing out,  QE 2 is obviously the  much (overly) anticipated factor. If ever there was a sell the news situation this is it. The only equivalent in memory might be the actual bombing of Baghdad during the 1st Gulf War.
 Looking at the above , 79.81 jumps out as important support , and taking it out would  signal a likely end of the protracted upside choppy abc structure. Take a look at the termination of "a" on the top chart, at 79.70.

 click to enlarge
Shorter term ovelapping the 84.00 level  and 50% retrace will trigger that test of 79.70















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