Wednesday, November 24, 2010

WTI Update

Turns out the move down  was a "b" wave, down and under on the Jan contract , conventional on the spot mo.
Additionally the consolidation has taken quite a bit of time so relabeling the Elliott count is called for;

click to enlarge
 A "2" wave of course CAN carry quite deeply into the body of the "1" , however given the down and under "b" this will more likely end up as a flat with resistance very nearby at the .382 retrace, if it hasn't reached it here.
Of course the USD and geopolitical risk has me leaning toward the interpretation as a flat.
The longer term implication of the "3" wave being about to begin, actually increases downside risk here significantly. Even modest Fib multiples of the "1" put the measured target for "3" well under the 75 level. If we are looking at an ABC down off the highs and C=A from here that puts WTI at roughly 75.
 



No comments:

Post a Comment