Tuesday, October 26, 2010

WTI- Leading Not Lagging

Of interest this morning is the relative weakness in WTI. With the SP and the Yen hitting new highs ,
the Euro coming close (in a likely "b" wave up with -c- = .62 -a- ), the WTI continued a pattern discussed in
WTI Roll Over Wed. Oct. 20 




click to enlarge
 Note the clear abc structure of -2- , retracing Fib. .84 of -1-, with  -c- nearly equal to-a- .
Both waves labeled 1 and -1- are equal, so eventually they may be labeled as an "a" and "c", but in the meantime they stand as labeled until proven otherwise. In any event even as an abc structure, if the the next abc down is equal to the 1st, it targets 78.04, and if the labeling is correct, a 3rd wave equal to 1.62 of the 1st targets 76.61 for -3-.
Shorter term there is a very similar pattern set up;
Dec 5 min
click to enlarge
I would suggest that rather than being perceived as lagging the other markets to the upside the WTI is LEADING to the downside.
Perhaps it has something to do with this:  

And this;
Or this:

That's Main St.




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