Thursday, October 14, 2010

NG Update

The fairly deep retrace by NG  following the highs of yesterday raises the legitimate question re natural's turn up and it's sustainability. And when considering that the importance of the potential on the long term charts for an upturn of significance needs to be kept in mind. Please see yesterdays Natural Gas Wave Count .

 It DID break the mo. long trendline though of course it failed to close above. Five waves can be counted from the second 3.545 low. Alternatively the move up could also be seen as an abc with near c=a.
Given the NG propensity to structure itself in ABC's that does not  automatically  indicate weakness.
There ARE important Fibonacci targets under the lows at 3.30 and 2.95. and it's too early to entirely rule them out, on balance still pretty good odds the low IS in. 
So watching for some very short term confirming factor's here; like retaking the move over the trendline for starters. That will also take out some overnight horizontal resistance and the .382 retrace of yest afternoons drop. So resist. 3.69 and if  over 3.743,  as previous high and .763 ,  pretty much signals a test of 3.88 and 4.
 It does look like the little leg up from today's lows is a 5 wave structure.
Of course overlapping today's lows would would be bearish and probably indicate a test of, and poss new lows for the season.

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