Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Natural Gas Lows- Are We There Yet?

From Thur. Oct. 16, NG Update " Of course overlapping today's lows ( 3.617 as of writing) would be bearish and probably indicate a test of, and poss new lows for the season."
Well we have new lows, AND the risk of a  reversal and potential targets to the upside are high. See Natural Gas Wave Count
 The .763 retrace of the 2.40 to 6.11 move is at 3.28, and the head and shoulders neckline break projects to about 3.35.
Short Term there is a clear 5 waves down from the 3.76 high of last Thur. and according to the COT funds and  large speculators longs declined by 36 percent in the seven days ended Oct. 12.
click to enlarge
Probably have to take out the 50% retrace at 3.58 to get people at all excited.
New lows under 3.39 , and the  3.35/3.28 area waits to provide support. It needs to hold or 2.95 is back in the sights.

No comments:

Post a Comment