Sunday, October 24, 2010

All about the Euro

For a Friday with Fed POMO activity not much was achieved. SP's had an inside day on a so called "golden cross" with crap volume. Admittedly the POMO was a more modest 2.5 billion, but at a reported 30x leverage in use during a dead market, not producing a ramp is important to note. Perhaps the buying was done Thur. afternoon ahead of the well known schedule.... that felt like a ramp. Crude got a pretty good rip in after 11:30 so maybe the emphasis was on commodities. In any case it remains all about the USD and particularly the Euro/USD.
Dec 30 min
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And whatever the long term outlook this 30 min chart suggests a test of the highs if not more. The move down off the highs is a near c=a and into the range of the 4th of lesser degree's on the daily chart. . The initial move up from Tue.'s 1.3688 low, is structured as 5 waves and overlapped the beginning of the preceding leg down labeled b. So far it has only retraced a little over 50% to the 4 th of lesser degree to 1.3850. 
Does it get much above 1.4150? The last correction down of similar degree lasted from Aug.6 until Aug 25. This one has only had 3 days down if it ended at 1.3688. So maybe this is just a b wave up move. 
However if it does make new highs the fib .763 retrace of 1.5140 down to 1.1880 is at 1.4357
click to enlarge

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