Tuesday, September 28, 2010

WTI - Going Nowhere Fast

Imagine for a minute if the price of crude oil ranged between $18.30 and $21.70 for over  a year. Probably think that was pretty unusual to say the least. In percent terms that is pretty much what we've had since last Sept....8.5% swings around the mean of $76.50 (excluding a few outlier weeks).

click to sharpen and enlarge
Strictly speaking the mean of the range 65.05 to 87.15 is 76.10 and the swings represent 14.4%, but if you lose a few outlier weeks the range is 70 to 83 with a mean at 76.50. PSSSST check out tonight's settle.
And if we pause to consider the events of the last 12 mo.s that might have had an effect on pricing ...like the USD swings,  the Eurozone and Dubai debt problems, refinery margins,  inventories at record levels, the BP disaster, OPEC compliance (53%), it all seems even more unusual.
The 76.50 level represents a .382 retrace of the 2008, $114 crap out labeled I or A.  The 87.15 level was 48%.

1 comment:

  1. So what happened? No sooner had you posed this...

    ReplyDelete