Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Natural Gas Update

The last 3 weeks of the Oct NG contract trading has been choppy and tough...not least of all due to the potential seasonal low issue. For a little context and the Crudewire take pls see Natural Gas /Seasonal Lows  Aug 29, Natty Update from Aug 31, Natural Gas  from Sept.8, and Natural Gas- Seasonal Low or No? from Sept.16 .
 click to enlarge
 So far no impulse waves to the upside.That argues for this as a corrective move sideways rather than some basing action with the seasonal low behind it.
The big Q here is whether this is another X wave down, finding support at the .76 retrace,  to be followed by aZ structure up, or did it  finish up at the 4.124 level, and is now headed for new lows?
Sometimes the pit trading hours only chart is useful to clean up the look of the wave structure:

 This is near to looking like an impulse wave down from 4.14. new lows. Under the 3.81 level (and the .76 retrace point) ought to do it.

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