Wednesday, August 11, 2010

WTI Review

The last post, WTI now C=A etc , from Mon. Aug. 9 , details the Fibonacci and Elliott importance of the 82.97 top, and some of the problems with the move thus far on the downside. But let's step back a bit ...
From May 6, WTI Overview    will put the current move lower in context...as the potential resumption of a downward structure that can take out the 32.40 low from 2008.
click to enlarge
Thus far it's exhibited a very common Elliott pattern, though the corrective moves are time consuming (not a surprise really considering the world wide CB interventions).So the confirmation of that resumption down has more than the usual importance. Even if you think the current move down from the early May highs is corrective, the C=A at around 60.30 (Sept).
 As mentioned previously the overlap of the .618 retrace and  of the "a" at 78.58, will go a long way toward confirming the  reversal.  Of course it really needs to overlap the 75.86 level, the "b", and take out the lows of 69.60, unfortunately that's 10 bucks away.
Note how the 69.50 level continues to be very important.

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