Thursday, August 12, 2010

SP500 Collapse on Weak Fundamentals/ Strong Dollar

A nice start to the week with the Euro breaking below the trend line that has defined support for the last month or three, see Euro Breaks Month Long Trend , followed by Tuesdays Asian weakness , Asia Overnight , and disappointing FOMC announcement ( "is that all ya got?"), and of course yesterday's Trade Deficit Surges To Highest Since October 2008, Trounces Expectations; Q2 GDP To Be Revised To Sub-1%.
All contributed to this mornings SP 5th wave down on the employment debacle.
Measured targets  for the -5- would be 1070 as -5- = -1-, or 1054 as -5- = .618 of the -1- thru -3-.

after close add ..the great thing about 5 waves down is of course it goes a long way toward defining expectations for the near and intermediate term.... today's bounce has so far been as could be expected ...into the range of the 4th wave of lesser degree, choppy and quiet, 1091.50 is a .382 retrace and should hold any rally. I would guess squeezing the shorts out over the last couple mo.s will prevent deeper retracements now.

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