Monday, August 23, 2010

Praying for the Apocalypse

Back in the day a local I knew would answer "I'm prayin' for the apocalypse",  when asked how it was going and he was way long in a falling market. "Prayin for the Apocalypse"  caught on as a tagline.

Lately there has been a lot of that going on over at Zero Hedge, which re prints every article that surfaces on Israel hitting Iran. This weekends; Israel Knesset Member Declares "We Are Preparing For War" 
a good example.

So how has this sort of thing worked out for those petitioners in the past? 
The original  Israeli strike against IRAQ's nuclear power plant occurred on June 7, 1981. 
And while obtaining monthly price data is a little sketchy from that period, it can be seen that prices generally peaked in that year 1981 around 38/40 (depending on source) and fell for the next 5 years to 9.75 in April of 86.
Looking at the London gold fix, which is well documented ,  there is barely a bump in prices to interupt its down trend on that date.

How 'bout the first Iraq war?


click to enlarge and sharpen
Note the gap open down on the morning of Jan 17, following the initial aerial bombardment. 
It WAS quoted  much higher overnight in Singapore cash trade around 35/36 for about 30 sec. with only one cargo done (probably Goldman right?)  before the buyer disappeared. Plenty of sellers.


And of course there was the most recent Iraq War with combat operations beginning Mar. 20 to May 1.
 That time it bounced a little before selling off to new lows. 

This year with world wide oil inventories at pretty much record levels, any strike against Iran will result, I suspect, in a repeat of that pattern with some minor variation. 
Those "Prayin for the Apocalypse" will hit the market with all they've got. 

PS 
I'm told by a participant, that the actual cash high in 1981 was $41 for a cargo of Ekofisk, bought by the rock group ABBA as an investment. That was a great sale.










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